HILLARY CLINTON: IN THE POCKET OF BIG ARITHMETIC
from John Ford in New York
OK, so before folk go to the polls in a whole passel of states, let’s look at where the Democrat delegate count stands, and what the tally might look like under a variety of scenarios.
Below I’ve laid out what the count looks like, both with and without superdelegates, and as if the superdelegates were apportioned relative to nationwide popular vote, kind of pretending they didn’t exist. Because the side that’s losing wants to pretend they didn’t exist.
It’s not even math, just arithmetic that a ten year old can understand, if not an 18-34.
1. If there simply were no superdelegates, and only the 4051 pledged delegates which are distributed proportionally on a state-by-state basis (or occasionally by congressional district, but the difference is a rounding error), Clinton would be 214 delegates away from a majority, which she’ll certainly get tonight.
2. If they were apportioned by popular vote, given that she’s up 56.4 to Sanders’ 43.6, she’d get 403 superdelegates to Sanders’ 309, and would only be 168 away. Which she’ll certainly get tonight. (Yes, I know this is a little lazy, and I really ought to have distributed them based on the results in each state, but I didn’t, so there. You can if you want to; again, rounding error.)
3. And you all know what happens when the superdelegates are distributed according to the actual rules, which worked against Clinton in 2008 when they all defected to Obama after it became clear he was the choice of the public. It’s important to remember that the superdelegates are mostly longtime Democratic politicos, who keenly see upon which side of their bread rests the butter; they’re not going to swim against the tide if their careers will suffer thereby. That’s what happened in ’08, when Clinton made a major selling point of her insurmountable superdelegate lead, which rapidly became highly surmountable indeed. It’s why she has been mute on the score this year.
In any event, Clinton’s right; it’s not over by the strictest letter of the rules. But it will be before day breaks on the as-yet United Kingdom, and has been for all practical intents and purposes for a couple months. Now go to bed.